51 Capital March - Exit Polls

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Exit Polls vs. Redefining Reality

2004 National Exit Polls

2004 Exit Polls Statistical Examination Links

EXIT POLLS vs. REDEFINIG REALITY

Exit polls have a distinguished history of reliability in US national elections, maintaining a 1/2% accuracy rate... until 2004 that is. The reasons for this high accuracy record are fundamental to exit polling. Unlike pre-election polling, exit polls are more accurate due to the fact that people are polled on what they did as opposed to what they intend to do. Exit polls survey historical results. Also, exit polls survey large numbers of respondents (13,660 in 2004) unlike regular national polls which rely on results from as little as 780 respondents.

The 2004 election was an extraordinary anomaly. For the first time in exit polling history, reported vote counts reversed exit poll results.

In prior elections, exit polls coincided with election results to within 1/2 percent reliability.
In prior elections, exit polls were sufficiently reliable for news organizations to call state results with as little as 5% of vote count reported.
In prior elections, news organizations never recast the exit poll results in the middle of the night as CNN did in 2004 between 12:22AM and 1:30AM.
In prior elections, news organizations never discounted exit poll race results while simultaneously quoting demographic results as gospel.

Never before have exit polls matched the last pre-election polls within the margin of errors in so many states only to be summarily dismissed or ignored by so many national news organizations at once. In this never-never land of altered reality, exit polls are touted as proof positive the Ukrainian election was rigged. Even the US government conducted Ukrainian exit polls and relied on them to call for new Ukrainian elections:

UKRAINE: Exit polls are accurate
USA: Exit polls are wrong

Anyone who questioned this surreality has been labeled a "conspiracy nut" or a disgruntled "liberal" suffering from a severe case of "sour grapes" over Kerry losing the election "fair and square". This, in an election where voting irregularities occurred in record numbers, voter suppression disenfranchised record numbers of voters, and all irregularities in voting favored George Bush - ALL, EVERY ONE! We are simply NOT to question this new world order where statistics no longer apply and truth is what we are told.
Black is white. Up is down. Truth is falsehood. Lies are true. War is peace. Love is hate. Wrong is right. Bush won. Kerry lost.

Here are the 2004 national exit poll facts BEFORE the data was changed in the dead of night:

Kerry won the state and national pre-election polls conducted in the last week before the election in percentages remarkably similar to the exit poll margins.
He also won the state exit polls and the two "preliminary" national exit polls, posted at 7:58pm (11,027 respondents).
He maintained his lead (Kerry 51-48%) in the exit poll updates released at 12:22am (2020 additional respondents - 13,047 total), respectively.
With just 613 additional respondents (13,660 total respondents), came the BIG FLIP to Bush (51-48%) in the final poll results released on 11/3 after the results were "adjusted" to reflect the so-called "reality" of reported vote counts.

SOURCES:
For an in-depth analysis of the 2004 Edison-Mitofsky Exit Polls, download USCountVotes' definitive analysis in .PDF format:

USCountVotes.org 2004 Exit Poll Analysis Summary
USCountVotes.org 2004 Exit Poll Analysis Full Report

http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm
A special thanks and full appreciation goes out to TIA at DemocraticUnderground.com for all of his tireless work and dedication analyzing exit polls.

2006 EXIT POLLS

2004 National Exit Polls ~ Weighted Vote by Category ~ release time: 12:22AM

Gender
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Male
46.0%

23.46%

21.62%

0.46%

Female
54.0%

24.30%

29.16%

0.54%

100.0%

47.76%

50.78%

1.00%

Race/Gender
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

White Male
36.0%

20.88%

14.76%

0.36%

White Female
41.0%

21.32%

19.27%

0.41%

Non White Male
10.0%

2.90%

7.00%

0.10%

Non White Female
13.0%

2.86%

10.01%

0.13%

100.0%

47.96%

51.04%

1.00%

Race
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

White
77.0%

42.35%

33.88%

0.77%

Black
11.0%

1.10%

9.90%

0.00%

Latino
9.0%

3.74%

5.09%

0.18%

Asian
2.0%

0.76%

1.22%

2.00%

Other
1.0%

0.39%

0.59%

0.02%

100.0%

48.34%

50.68%

2.97%

Age
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

18-29
17.0%

7.31%

9.52%

0.17%

30-44
27.0%

13.50%

13.23%

0.27%

45-59
30.0%

14.10%

15.30%

0.60%

60+
26.0%

13.26%

12.48%

0.26%

100.0%

48.17%

50.53%

1.30%

Income
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

0-15
9.0%

2.97%

5.94%

0.09%

15-30
15.0%

5.85%

8.85%

0.30%

30-50
22.0%

10.34%

11.44%

0.22%

50-75
23.0%

12.19%

10.35%

0.46%

75-100
13.0%

6.50%

6.37%

0.13%

100-150
11.0%

5.83%

4.95%

0.22%

150-200
4.0%

2.12%

1.88%

0.00%

200+
4.0%

2.32%

1.64%

0.04%

101.0%

48.12%

51.42%

1.46%

Education
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

No HS
4.0%

1.88%

2.08%

0.04%

HS
22.0%

10.56%

11.22%

0.22%

Some College
31.0%

15.81%

14.57%

0.62%

College Graduate
26.0%

13.13%

12.61%

0.26%

Post Graduate
17.0%

6.80%

9.86%

0.34%

100.0%

48.18%

50.34%

1.48%

Party_ID
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Democrat
38.0%

3.42%

34.20%

0.38%

Republican
36.0%

33.12%

2.52%

0.36%

Independent
26.0%

11.70%

13.52%

0.52%

100.0%

48.24%

50.24%

1.26%

Ideology
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Liberal
22.0%

2.64%

19.14%

0.22%

Moderate
45.0%

18.90%

25.65%

0.45%

Conservative
33.0%

27.06%

5.28%

0.33%

100.0%

48.60%

50.07%

1.00%

Voted Before?
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

No
11.0%

4.73%

6.16%

0.00%

Yes
89.0%

42.72%

44.50%

0.89%

100.0%

47.45%

50.66%

0.89%

Religion
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Protestant
53.0%

29.68%

22.79%

0.53%

Catholic
27.0%

13.23%

13.50%

0.27%

Jewish
3.0%

0.69%

2.31%

0.00%

Other
7.0%

1.40%

5.25%

0.35%

None
10.0%

2.90%

7.00%

0.10%

100.0%

47.90%

50.85%

1.25%

In Military?
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Yes
18.0%

9.90%

7.74%

0.36%

No
82.0%

37.72%

43.46%

0.82%

100.0%

47.62%

51.20%

1.18%

When Decided
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Today
6.0%

2.46%

3.24%

0.30%

3 days
3.0%

1.26%

1.62%

0.12%

Week
2.0%

1.02%

0.96%

0.02%

Month
10.0%

3.80%

6.10%

0.10%

Before
79.0%

39.50%

39.50%

0.00%

100.0%

48.04%

51.42%

0.54%

Financial Situation
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Better
31.0%

24.49%

6.51%

0.00%

Worse
29.0%

5.22%

23.49%

0.29%

Same
40.0%

18.40%

21.20%

0.40%

100.0%

48.11%

51.20%

0.69%

Confident votes counted accurately?
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Yes
90.0%

45.00%

44.10%

0.90%

No
10.0%

2.70%

7.10%

0.10%

100.0%

47.70%

51.20%

1.00%

Vote in 2000
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

No
17.0%

6.63%

10.03%

0.17%

Gore
38.0%

3.04%

34.58%

0.38%

Bush
41.0%

36.90%

3.69%

0.00%

Other
4.0%

0.52%

2.60%

0.64%

100.0%

47.09%

50.90%

1.19%

Region
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

NorthEast
22.3%

9.01%

13.02%

0.22%

MidWest
25.3%

12.37%

12.63%

0.25%

South
31.3%

16.88%

14.06%

0.31%

West
21.3%

9.67%

11.37%

0.21%

100.0%

47.93%

51.07%

1.00%

Size of community
PCT.

BUSH

KERRY

NADER

Big City
13.0%

4.55%

8.45%

0.00%

Small City
19.0%

8.74%

10.07%

0.19%

Suburbs
44.0%

22.00%

21.56%

0.44%

Small Town
8.0%

3.76%

4.08%

0.16%

Rural
16.0%

9.12%

6.72%

0.16%

100.0%

48.17%

50.88%

0.95%

Posted by TIA at http://www.democaticunderground.com on 3/8/2005.

Do we continue to take the election results reported to us on blind faith, ignoring anomalous exit polls, unprecedented voter suppression and voting irregularities, and complete national media silence without ANY serious investigation? Does our democracy mean so little to us that we will ignore the facts? Are we so complacent, we don't even question a series of extraordinary occurrences that have never happened before? Do we care what happens to our votes? Do we care what we leave to our children?

<-- TIA NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS LINKS -->

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: A Democratic Underground TIA REFERENCE COLLECTION

TIA is an anonymous PHd statistician who posted extensively on Democratic Underground. Follow the links below to review TIA's complete work analyzing the 2004 exit polls: (Please excuse any broken links)

Also see the Demopedia article (highly recommended!) Exit Polls.

TruthIsAll's original thread

Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder? Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM

Part IV. To believe Bush won the election you must also believe… Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 12:01 AM

HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS... Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM

BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000... Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM

100% ABSOLUTE PROOF: FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM

THE MAGICAL 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660 Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS.... Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM

THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM

PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained... Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM

A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM

IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED? Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM

Lynn Landes, this is for you. Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:24 PM

THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF" Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM

Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus. Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM

GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll to Vote - Trend reversal in 2004 Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM

A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM

The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B) Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM

Check. Mate. Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM

NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED? Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY" Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM

SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660? Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM

PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM

BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM

1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM

Bush Win probabilities for various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM